Editor's Notes

If anything, several strong Asian candidates in the race for mayor help each other.

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tredmond@sfbg.com

August is a bad time to split town. When I left for vacation a couple of weeks ago, Ed Lee was just starting to act like a candidate in a slow-developing mayor's race. Nobody except my lunatic pal h. brown had any inkling that Public Defender Jeff Adachi would jump into the Room 200 sweepstakes at the last minute. And the Giants were three games up.

Now Lee is the clear front-runner, Adachi — a guy who defends criminals for a living — is the darling of a some anti-government conservatives, there are Avalos signs all over the Mission, and nobody knows exactly how to figure this all out.

Oh, and Arizona — which I hate (yeah, I hate the entire state, including the governor, the baseball team and the newspaper chain that's based there) — is leading the National League West.

Welcome home, I guess.

The first thing I want to say about the mayor's race is that none of this would be possible without ranked-choice voting and public financing. Think about it: Five serious Asian candidates, two of them leading in the polls and at least three of them real contenders — and nobody's complaining that Adachi or Lee will "split" the Asian vote. If anything, several strong Asian candidates help each other; the supporters of Ed Lee and Leland Yee may be trashing the opposition day and night, but in the end, a lot of Chinese voters will probably still rank the incumbent mayor and the man who's been elected citywide four times as two of their three choices.

And without public financing, the race would be dominated by one or two contenders — the ones who could privately raise $1 million or more to stay in the game. Instead, we have at least four and perhaps as many as five or six candidates who have a real chance of finishing on top. Already, the Chron and the Ex are complaining about the cost of public financing; the cost of closed elections where only those with big-business connections could win was much, much higher.

The other factor that will make this fascinating is that Lee's job just got much, much harder. He's not the amiable technocrat who comes to work early and gets the job done anymore; now he's an ambitious pol who has never had to stand up to the heat of a tough campaign. He's going to have to be a candidate, and campaign, and answer some hard questions about some of his political allies and supporters. That's not the gig he wanted in February. And I don't know how well he's going to handle it.

Comments

Tim, I'm kinda surprised that you were surprised by Jeff jumping in, but then I'm just another old loony who listens and pays attention to what h says; IMHO he and Hope are two of the sharpest knives in our local tackle box.
I remember asking John months ago at one of his earliest events at Cafe Le Boheme, "What are your plans if Matt or Jeff jump in at the last minute; have you thought about an IRV strategy". To his credit John's response was something like, "I can't worry about that, I'm just focused on what I believe is best for all the people of the City, staying true to my principles, and not making political deals". Apologies John if I misrepresented you. As far as I can tell to date, to his credit, he has remained a man of his word. The next few months are gonna be fascinating as 'progressives of all persuasions' decide between John and Jeff.
So Tim, ignore h at your peril, he is generally very prescient, though I think his hope for a Giant repeat will probably have to wait until next year.

Posted by Pat Monk.RN. on Aug. 18, 2011 @ 12:33 pm

Welcome back.

Avalos seems like a good guy - but Adachi can win with a combo of progressives and folks concerned about mounting budget deficits. Gotta play to win and drop the grudges- Avalos certainly doesn't have any...

Of course, nothing will stop Lee unless publications like SFBG cover his shady dealings...why the kid gloves?

H is solid.

Go Giants!

Posted by Guest on Aug. 18, 2011 @ 1:03 pm

Whoever believes Adachi is actually a progressive is totally delusional. Since when has any progressive candidate been funded by Billionaires that supported Arnold, Scott Walker, Mitt Romney? Follow the money and you will see the truth.

Posted by Guest on Aug. 22, 2011 @ 7:18 pm

Yes, he is a progressive. You forgot to mention the "Koch brothers"...

Posted by Guest on Aug. 22, 2011 @ 7:37 pm

Don't get me wrong. I'm the first one that would declare Adachi the anti-christ, but..

Is your statement hyperbole, or can you show that Adachi indeed has the same funders as Schwarzenegger, Walker, and Romney?

I was thinking it is more localized greedy billionaires doing so ;')

Posted by Guest on Aug. 22, 2011 @ 7:49 pm

"Adachi can win with a combo of progressives and folks concerned about mounting budget deficits."

That's wishful thinking. Jeff Adachi is smart, articulate, and courageous, but his chances of winning the mayoral race are slim.

If Ed Lee, the frontrunner, falters, the most likely beneficiary will be Leland Yee. He will carry much of the westside, the progressives who believe he will turn out to be a stealth progressive, and the unions.

Adachi has an Achilles' heel - He's weak when it comes to public safety. He never met a criminal defendant he didn't sympathize with.

If polls show Adachi moving ahead significantly, the police and firefighters will go after him, relentlessly hammering his weakness on public safety. You'll see TV ads about some of the criminal monsters he has defended in court. It will be a sobering spectacle.

My guess is that Adachi himself is aware that his chances of becoming mayor are low. His purpose in announcing a mayoral candidacy is to be a game-changer. He wants to make pension reform the big issue of the campaign.

The likely upshot in November is that Lee will be elected mayor, but Adachi's version of pension reform will prevail over Lee's. Both will be able to claim victory.

Posted by Arthur Evans on Aug. 18, 2011 @ 1:29 pm

It started with your shilling drivel from beyondchron...

Adachi's not a favorite to win- the point was he has a shot a wider constituency than Avalos imo subject to a change in RCV dynamics.

It's pretty clear you're a Lee advocate and enjoy taunting the progressives here although you are smart not to say so outright.

This is kinda dumb:

"If polls show Adachi moving ahead significantly, the police and firefighters will go after him, relentlessly hammering his weakness on public safety. You'll see TV ads about some of the criminal monsters he has defended in court. It will be a sobering spectacle."

Come on- they hate the guy already/they threw him out of a funeral. They've already been attacking the guy for 18 months. Such an attack will be seen as the same 'ol folks fighting tooth and nail for the bloated benefits that are bankrupting the City. No one with a partial brain will miss the motivation.

Point is there is no precedent here - a zillion candidates in an RCV race. Who knows. It is folly at this point to say someone with high name recognition, a 43% base from a previous initiative and Adachi's talent (as you point out) "can't win."

Hopefully - you'll pick it up again next week.

Posted by Guest on Aug. 18, 2011 @ 2:18 pm
Posted by Nusfrat Jones on Aug. 18, 2011 @ 2:28 pm

Thanks, Guest, for your post above. Here are some thoughts –

You say:

“your shilling drivel from beyondchron...”

What’s this all about?

You say:

“Adachi's not a favorite to win- the point was he has a shot a wider constituency than Avalos imo subject to a change in RCV dynamics.”

What does the above paragraph mean?

You say:

“It's pretty clear you're a Lee advocate…”

Not so. I haven’t made up my mind about whom to support. I'm leaning toward not voting at all.

As I said before, I believe Lee made a big mistake in deciding to run for mayor. If he’s elected, he will probably be a bureaucratic hack, coasting with institutional inertia. Not an appealing prospect.

However, I believe Lee will win. No incumbent in office in SF has ever been ousted under ranked-choice voting. This system of voting makes it extremely difficult to dislodge incumbents. That's one of the flaws of this system.

You say:

“Such an attack [by the police on Adachi’s public-safety record] will be seen as the same 'ol folks fighting tooth and nail for the bloated benefits that are bankrupting the City.”

Adachi will also be attacked for his pension-reform measure, true. But his greater vulnerability, which has not yet gotten due attention, is his poor attitude when it comes to public safety, which will be easy to document.

You say:

“Point is there is no precedent here - a zillion candidates in an RCV race. Who knows.”

Some things are known:

Ed Lee is far ahead of the other contenders.

The other contenders have no positive alternative vision, just carping comments about Lee.

Jeff Adachi is a polarizing figure, inspiring to some and infuriating to some.

Our local progressive sect is in complete disarray.

You say:

“It is folly at this point to say someone with high name recognition, a 43% base from a previous initiative and Adachi's talent (as you point out) ‘can't win.’”

Jeff Adachi has won impressively at the polls as a public defender. The office of mayor is an entirely different kettle of fish.

To the best of my knowledge, no public defender has ever been directly elected mayor in SF. One reason is that the mayor is the head of the city’s public-safety efforts.

A public defender will have trouble explaining his or her qualifications for such a role, and especially so in the case of Adachi.

Adachi is smart, brave, articulate, witty, and creative. But he will not be the next mayor.

Posted by Arthur Evans on Aug. 18, 2011 @ 2:54 pm

AE- Generally I agree with your analysis but not here. No reason to drone on.

As far as PDs go Adachi is unique. I have seen no serious polling (non push-poll) with the actual field that shows Lee "far ahead." I'll believe it when I see it...

Posted by Guest on Aug. 18, 2011 @ 3:13 pm

I agree with you on the importance of public financing Tim, however you may be the ONLY one who had no inkling about Adachi jumping in. I knew about it as early as January of this year that Adachi would run for mayor. I heard about it from a credible source on FB of all places. Mesha wrote that Adachi was seriously considering a run. And, if you recall, his critics -- including Chris Daly and Haaland -- have maintained all along that this pension reform business was more about Adachi's political aspirations than anything else. As it turns out, they were right.

(To be honest, I originally thought it was Gonzalez who would run. I just don't see where Adachi gets his base, but i suppose anything is possible with IRV.)

All the same, we didn't need h. Brown to confirm our hunch that one of these guys would likely jump in the race. If you think about it, it makes sense. Adachi was fashioning his image as "a maverick' and he was going on every conservative talk show that would have him. He's shrewd enough to understood that if he's going to win, he needs to pick up votes from the conservative West side. And that he needed an issue that would set him apart from the other candidates. Pension reform is that vehicle. It didn't hurt that the war on workers was playing well all across the nation. So, Adachi jumped on that bandwagon because it's a surefire way of pandering to conservatives.

IMHO, Gonzalez deserves scrutiny as well because he stands to gain something if Adachi is elected. The PD is an elected position. But if Jeff wins, Gonzo will most likely be appointed to succeed Adachi. The voters will not have a say in that. And I think they should because these two are virtually the ONLY 'progressives' to back this anti-worker initiative. I think it betrays a level of cynicism that is nothing short of astounding. Do these pols honestly think that the electorate is so naive that we couldn't figure out that this was their game plan all along?

Oh, and that interview of Gonzalez by h Brown was just a little too precious. There's Matt, pretending he didn't know all along that Jeff would run... and the pretense that he supports Ed Lee. Says he doesn't believe in Avalos, but Ed Lee...oh yeah. Dude knows which side his bread is buttered on, that's for sure. (I put off reading that interview since I'm positively allergic to Matt's B.S. but I have to say, it was most enlightening.) The sad thing is that Matt knows better.

Posted by Lisa on Aug. 18, 2011 @ 3:29 pm

*shrewd enough to understand (typo)

Posted by Lisa on Aug. 18, 2011 @ 3:41 pm

Lisa - pretty interesting.

Although- ..."As it turns out, they were right." I'm pretty sure you can't read minds. What motivates these folks is unknowable. The PD budget was getting slashed with benefit costs skyrocketing and everyone sitting on their as**es (new posting policy). Adachi had plenty of motivation.

Posted by Guest on Aug. 18, 2011 @ 4:39 pm

"As far as PDs go Adachi is unique."

- Guest

True. But the big question here is whether he's another Martin Luther.

He might be. He might just turn out to be the type of person who will trigger a Reformation in our local progressive sect and change the dynamics of city politics for years to come.

If Adachi is this type of person, then he does have a chance of being elected mayor and, in fact, of becomine one of the great mayors.

However, Adachi may be merely unique, and not a genius. In this case, Ed Lee is most likely to be elected mayor; or, if Lee falters, Leland Yee.

All who know Adachi personally would agree that he's unique. We'll have to wait and see if he's the sort who can change history.

Posted by Arthur Evans on Aug. 18, 2011 @ 4:25 pm