I couldn't reach Ho to ask why he was working so hard on this deal. But one longtime political insider had a suggestion: "Sometimes it's not about money, it's about power. And if you want to have power, you need to win and prove you can win."
Snellgrove will be sitting pretty if 8 Washington breaks ground. Since it's a private deal (albeit in part on Port of San Francisco land) there's no public record of how much money the developer stands to make. But Chiu pointed out during the meeting, and confirmed to me later by phone, that "there are only two data points we know." One is that Snellgrow informed the Port that he expects to gross $470 million in revenue from selling the condos. The other is that construction costs are expected to come in at about $177 million. Even assuming $25 million in legal and other soft costs, that's a huge profit margin.
And it suggests the he can well afford either to lower the heights — or, more important, to give the city a much sweeter benefits package. The affordable housing component could be tripled or quadrupled and Snellgrove's development group would still realize far more return that even the most aggressive lenders demand.
Chiu said he's disappointed but will continue working to improve the project. "While I was disappointed in the votes," he said, "many of my colleagues expressed concerns about height, parking, and affordable housing fees that they can address in the upcoming project approvals."
So what does this mean for the fall elections? It may not be a huge deal — the symbolism of 8 Washington is powerful, but if it's built, it won't, by itself, directly change the lives of people in Olague's District 5 or Mar's District 1. Certainly the vote on CPMC will have a larger, more lasting impact on the city. Labor's support for Mar could be a huge factor, and his willingness to break with other progressives to give the building trades a favor could help him with money and organizing efforts. On the other hand, some of Olague's opponents will use this to differentiate themselves from the incumbent. John Rizzo, who has been running in D5 for almost a year now, told me he strongly opposed 8 Washington. "It's a clear-cut issue for me, the wrong project and a bad deal for the city." London Breed, a challenger who is more conservative, told us: "I would not have supported this project," she said, arguing that the zoning changes set a bad precedent for the waterfront. "There are so many reasons why it shouldn't have happened," she said. And while Mar is in a more centrist district, support from the left was critical in his last grassroots campaign. This won't cost him votes against a more conservative opponent — but if it costs him enthusiasm, that could be just as bad.