The right recall move

The danger for [Gov. Gray] Davis is that he could become irrelevant to the election, his standing sinking so low that his recall becomes an assumption and all of the media attention and money flow to the candidates to succeed him, principally Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democrat Cruz Bustamante. If that happens, the recall becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Dan Walters, Sacramento Bee, Aug. 22

THE MOST TELLING polls on the California recall aren't the ones that ask directly about Gov. Gray Davis or compare the various candidates to replace him. The polls that show how much trouble Davis is really in are the ones that ask voters whether they think the state is headed in the right direction and whether replacing Davis would make things better. Almost every public opinion sampling over the past several weeks has shown that well over half of the voters think the state's a mess and that a new governor – almost any new governor – would do a better job than Davis has.

If those surveys are accurate, Davis has a monumental uphill battle to survive the recall. And so far he hasn't done much to show that he's up to it.

Davis – always a creature of the polls – realizes people dislike his arrogant attitude and his failure to take any responsibility for any of the state's major problems. But a speech several days ago designed to make the governor appear more humble fell far short of its goal: Davis repeatedly ducked the blame for everything from the blackouts and disastrous energy contracts to the crippling budget crisis. And he gave no indication that he intends to change his basic approach to governing (which is to give big campaign donors everything they want, even when it damages consumers, the environment, education, civil rights, the economy, or anything else). One truly embarrassing example: right in the middle of the recall campaign, Davis is trying to gut SCA 1, the state constitutional amendment that would make public access to government records and meetings a fundamental right in California (see "Sunrise in Sacramento," page 12).

The good news is that much of the state and national Democratic leadership has, finally, defied Davis's political operatives and gotten behind Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante's candidacy. In fact, under pressure from the state's congressional delegation, even Davis is reluctantly acknowledging that it's not such a bad thing to have a prominent Democrat on the ballot, just in case the recall succeeds. As we pointed out July 23, that makes perfect sense – Democrats far outnumber Republicans in California, and GOP candidates have been handily defeated for the state's top job in the past two elections. So it would have been foolish to go into the election with no strong Democrat available to replace Davis. As we noted, "There's a lot more at stake in this recall than just Davis.... If there's a decent Democrat on the ballot, it might somewhat increase the changes that Davis will lose his job, but it will dramatically decrease the chances that a Republican will replace him" (see "Beyond Gray Davis," 7/23/03).

At this point, only Sen. Dianne Feinstein is sticking to the politically dangerous and indefensible position that voters should oppose the recall – and not even bother to choose a possible replacement. Feinstein is playing into the hands of the Republicans, who would love to see all Davis's supporters (and all those who, like us, oppose the recall despite our disdain for the incumbent governor) simply refuse to vote for a possible successor. If a substantial number of Democrats followed her dumb advice, it could throw the election to someone like Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Bustamante isn't perfect, and he isn't by any means the only credible candidate running to replace Davis. Green Party leader Peter Camejo would make a fine governor. A lot of progressives are supporting Arianna Huffington. The key is that Davis is very vulnerable – and no matter what you feel about the recall, it's crucial to support, and vote for, an alternative candidate. Because that person might well be running the state for the next three years.

P.S.: If Davis wants to have any hope of convincing liberal, progressive, and independent voters that he's worth retaining, he needs to immediately, and with public fanfare, sing Assemblymember Mark Leno's A.B. 1217, which would allow cities to protect residential hotel rooms. And he should publicly endorse SCA 1.