In This Issue

IN RETROSPECT, I guess it's not all that surprising Sup. Matt Gonzalez decided not to run for reelection. Despite the thrill of the mayoral campaign, I don't think he was ever that enamored of politics. Too many meetings, not enough of what he saw as the intellectual challenge he got as a criminal defense lawyer.

But his announcement – in a weekend interview with the San Francisco Examiner's Adriel Hampton – was startling even to some of his closest allies and supporters. As Steven T. Jones and I report, Gonzalez had been making noise for some time about leaving at the end of this term, but he appeared to have changed his mind. Then, in typical "Gonzalez the un-politician" fashion, he tipped off a few close allies and possible candidates late last week, gave the scoop to the Ex, and left the progressives in District Five scrambling madly to figure out who is and isn't a viable candidate to succeed him in perhaps the single most liberal district in town.

The race will shake out over the next few weeks. The list of candidates will probably get a lot longer, and the list of serious contenders a bit shorter. But there's a very real chance, even a likelihood, that three or four solid progressives will wind up running against each other, while the allies of Mayor Gavin Newsom find one consensus candidate they can back.

The stakes are high here: the Green Party is losing its top local elected official (and one of the highest-ranking Greens in the country) and will want to hold on to the seat. The Democratic Party will work strongly to take it back (and the Democratic County Central Committee may be sharply split between several candidates). If the left candidates all beat each other up and somehow allow District Five to elect a moderate, it will be a terrible blow to the progressive movement in the city.

Instant-runoff voting, which would help defuse a political bloodbath, may be in place, but as with anything involving San Francisco elections, there's no guarantee. Either way, it's going to be up to the candidates to keep it civil, to avoid whisper campaigns (and open hits) against each other, and to agree in advance to support each other in a runoff against a Newsomista. And Gonzalez, whose endorsement will be key, needs to help mediate. Because it could get messy, real quick.