ONE OF THE best ways for numbers junkies to monitor exactly what's going on with the national election is to check out www.rasmussenreports.com, which posts daily tracking polls on John Kerry versus George W. Bush. The stunning thing is how consistent the numbers are: for most of the past month, Bush has been at 46 or 47 percent nationwide, and Kerry has been at 47 or 48 percent.

Of course, as we all know by now, the popular vote doesn't matter – it's the Electoral College vote that counts, and by Rasmussen's calculus, right now Kerry has 203 and Bush has 183, with 152 votes still up in the air. It takes 270 to win. But if you think that looks good for Kerry, look at the swing states he'll need in order to get the 67 additional electoral votes. In most of them, the national trend holds: the difference between the two is as little as two or three points.

Which is a long way of saying that Ralph Nader, who polls around 3 percent in many places, may very well decide the election. And it's why so many people are desperately trying to get Nader to drop out.

Which might seem hopeless – but maybe it isn't. Sup. Matt Gonzalez, who's close to Nader's running mate, Peter Camejo, told us last week he thinks Nader and Camejo would consider it – if Kerry made the right offer. What Nader would need is some sign that Kerry is worth endorsing. And Gonzalez thinks that maybe, if Kerry seriously offered to get behind a national electoral reform program, including San Francisco-style ranked-choice voting (so that this sort of problem will never happen again), Nader might go for it.

Kerry would be a fool not to consider it – and if Gonzalez could help put those parties together, and make something happen, it could turn out to be far and away the most important thing he's ever done.

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This is our fall arts issue, and it's packed with previews, insights, and listings. Film editors Cheryl Eddy and Johnny Ray Huston pinpoint the highlights of a packed rep house and film festival calendar. Music editor Kimberly Chun and a host of writers present a listener's guide to concerts and CD releases. Glen Helfand looks at fall's gallery and museum shows and ponders the selling of glamour during difficult times. And there's much, much more.

Tim Redmond