By Cheryl Eddy and Kimberly Chun

Paul Giamatti and Thomas Haden Church in Sideways
© Twentieth Century Fox

Actress in a supporting role

Kimberly Chun: If the annoyingly perfect Natalie Portman wins for Closer, we'll have to break out our pasties and G-strings for a disturbed, celebratory lap dance – is that all it takes to get a lil' gold statuette these days? Wifely helpmates like Hotel Rwanda's Sophie Okonedo and Kinsey's Laura Linney did, respectively, anguished and colorless well. And working her New England estate-sale accent and larger-than-life charisma, Cate Blanchett could win for her brilliant, brittle Kate Hepburn impersonation in The Aviator. A kingdom for Cate's Kate? Nonetheless we're rooting for Sideways's grad student-waitress, Virginia Madsen – all frizzy hair and bright eyes, world-weary but wholesome sincerity, oenophiliac earthiness, and terroir-ific thoughtfulness. Try a little tenderness, just this once.

Actor in a supporting role

KC: This is a toughie, judging from the front-runners: Sideways's Thomas Haden Church, Million Dollar Baby's Morgan Freeman, and Closer's Clive Owen. Haden Church pulled out the most shockingly adept performance of the crew – who saw his bleary, frayed-at-the-edges, once-hunky-now-clunky tanning-salon refugee coming? For his well-etched performance as the damaged but dignified ex-fighter who lives and breathes boxing – and literally bunks down at the gym – Freeman may have the best chance of them all of making it, with a Jamie Foxx victory, a triumphant night for black actors (and sending MC Rock home hella satisfied). Still, how about a huzzah for Owen – not only because, as the strongest actor on-screen in Closer, he brought the energy and passion where the rest of the cast displayed none, but also because he's this year's Viggo Mortensen – a thinking woman's sex symbol, even when, as the crassest cuckolded clinician in London, he rips Jude Law a new orifice and demands an eyeful from Portman.

Actress in a leading role

Cheryl Eddy: Common sense deems this a two-woman race, with the latest buzz picking Hilary Swank's tragic boxer over Annette Bening's aging diva. This may not be her year, but it's only a matter of time before Kate Winslet takes home a statuette. Since her debut in 1994's Heavenly Creatures, Winslet has consistently been a bright light in every film she's graced; she also managed to survive the Titanic phenomenon with career and cred fully intact. She's so often cast in corset roles, but Winslet's nominated turn as Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind's punky free spirit showcases her range – not to mention her ability to rock a blue coiffure with total aplomb.

Actor in a leading role

CE: The ratings-hungry Academy aims to shake up this year's ceremony by handing out some awards via presenters stationed in the audience. Not in this category, though – especially since it's bound to purvey the best (funniest, naughtiest, most moving, most musical, most animated) speech of the night. Sorry, Leo – those bottles o' urine were impressive, but this is Foxx's year.

Best picture

CE: Sideways is the critics' darling; Million Dollar Baby offers controversy and a trio of strong lead performances (plus, especially after Mystic River, multitasker Clint Eastwood is on an amazing late-career streak). But Hollywood loves to put Hollywood up on a pedestal, which is why Martin "I did Raging Bull too!" Scorsese's The Aviator – auspiciously buoyed by a field-leading 11 nominations overall – looks likely to come out on top.

Directing

KC: I love Mike Leigh, but does Vera Drake rank among his most powerful and scalding efforts, à la Naked and even Secrets and Lies? Taylor Hackford's dedicated Ray is far too workmanlike. And Alexander Payne's literate Sideways admirably shows off his cast, but the general dearth of visual flair leaves a flat, made-for-Lifetime taste in the mouth of some cinephiles. So it comes down to Eastwood and his bouncing Million Dollar Baby – a likely winner since the Academy loves an actor-director. Yet Scorsese was robbed almost every other time through these turnstiles – hey, he already left his imprimatur on the boxing movie, with so much more poetry and verve (see Raging Bull's not-so-subtle rerelease in New York City and on DVD). In all sentimental fairness (and against the rules of fair play), give it to Marty for "Cavalleria Rusticana," the fight scenes, and the final monologue of Raging Bull; the "Jumpin' Jack Flash" sequence in Mean Streets; the kitchen entrance and cornfield killing in Good Fellas; Robert DeNiro's commando prep and first glimpse of Cybill Shepherd in Taxi Driver; and even the Bad Brains moment in After Hours, because he changed American cinema.

Music (song)

CE: Why are semicrunchy 1990s rockers Counting Crows on this list? It turns out, as annoying as "Mr. Jones" is (especially when crooned in karaoke form – dear god), the band's Shrek 2 ditty, "Accidentally in Love," is surprisingly irresistible. The song may not be as memorable as scene-stealer Puss 'N' Boots, but the upbeat, earnest paean to newfound romance provides a perfect backdrop for the film's opening montage of newlyweds Shrek and Fiona. Vignettes that cheerfully rip off obvious source material (Spider-Man, The Lord of the Rings) unfold over lyrics like "Well baby, I surrender / To the strawberry ice cream," and the resulting romantic, goofy vibe almost (almost!) excuses all the fart gags to come.

Animated feature film

CE: Shrek may have won this category in 2001, but Shrek 2 ungracefully smothered that film's freshness with a thick coating of in-jokes. Shark Tale was one of the worst movies of the year, animated or otherwise: a wholly unoriginal, garish mash-up of Finding Nemo and Sopranos-lite mafia clichés. The capeless crusaders of The Incredibles are clearly the most deserving; bonus points for using nonobvious voice talent (with or without superpowers, Holly Hunter trumps Cameron Diaz any day of the week).

Visual effects

CE: The werewolf in Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban was a few hairs on the dodgy side; all I remember about I, Robot is Will Smith's Converse sneaker fetish. Clearly, Spider-Man 2 should get the love in this category – especially since it didn't get a best-picture nod, as some webheads had predicted, schemed, or hoped.

Cinematography

KC: House of Flying Daggers was no Hero, just as The Passion of the Christ was no Ten Commandments, especially without the gritted teeth of Gun Club for Men prez Charleton Heston. The Phantom of the Opera frankly makes us retch, though A Very Long Engagement might have a shot, considering the bright, particular look and feel of Jean-Pierre Jeunet's previous light-and-shadow love letter, Amélie. Regardless, we'll have to go with The Aviator and the opening sequences that seem to be shot on faded Technicolor film stock, the lushly appointed midperiod, and the eerie womblike coloration of a starkers, stark-raving Howard Hughes's OCD hermitage.

Costume design

CE: Three 20th-century period pictures – The Aviator, Finding Neverland, and Ray – do battle with a kid-friendly fantasy flick (Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events) and one big toga party (Troy). Skirted brawn won in 2001, part of Gladiator's rousing charge toward best picture. But generally speaking, the Academy seems to go for gowns; for every Lord of the Rings battlefield, there's a Moulin Rouge, Chicago, Titanic, and Priscilla: Queen of the Desert. Though the fishnet-embellished frocks of Lemony Snicket's Violet Baudelaire were eye-catching (and covetable), The Aviator's embracing of golden age Hollywood and its photogenic icons remains the obvious choice.

Writing (adapted and original screenplays)

CE: It's gotta be Sideways for adapted screenplay and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind for original screenplay. They may not win in any other categories, but these two films – both refreshingly featuring characters who behave and talk like actual, flawed human beings – deserve to be honored here.

Film editing

KC: The Aviator, again – duh. Scorsese built his oeuvre on lyrical and bracing jump cuts – thanks in part to the mad skills of longtime editor Thelma Schoonmaker. The wife of the late Michael Powell even appears to make a brief cameo in the editing room of Hughes's Hell's Angels, tackling the reams of footage generated by Leonardo DiCaprio's visionary-obsessive (same difference, the film seems to posit) Howard Hughes. The rest of the nominees showcase solid, stolid work, but The Aviator lived or died, sunk or soared, on the strength of its sharp edits, the counterbalance to Hughes's sprawling Spruce Goose of a life.

Documentary feature

CE: With the polarizing Fahrenheit 9/11 out of the picture, 2004's other big documentary success story, Super Size Me, should nab the ultimate Happy Meal prize. Morgan Spurlock's charge on the fast-food kingdom is entertaining, timely, and oh so stomach-turning – and besides, the Academy loves to reward uglifyin' physical transformations (ahem, Charlize Theron).