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star.gif Will money win tonight in Iowa?

B3 note: This is an important and timely "follow the money" report from the Center For Responsive Politics in Washington, D.C. It makes a significant point: that even though there are 2,000 or so journalists covering the campaign in Iowa, and even though there is almost saturation media coverage, nobody can really follow the money.

As the report notes in section 3 below, "If money raised in Iowa is any indicator of popular support, Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton will win their respective caucuses tonight. And in New Hampshire, it'll be Romney and Barrack Obama. But remember that these figures represent fundraising thruogh Sept. 30 only. The fundraising and spending reports for October-December aren't due to the Federal Election Commission until after the caucuses on Jan. 3l." The best you can do to follow the money, as we learned to do from Deep Throat in the movie "All the President's Men," is to read this report and follow its advice on how to go further. Alas, that's not good enough.
Congratulations to the Center for doing the best that can be done under current election reporting law. B3


CENTER FOR RESPONSIVE POLITICS
MONEY-IN-POLITICS NEWS

January 3, 2008
tel: 202-857-0044, fax: 202-857-7809
editor@capitaleye.org
www.OpenSecrets.org
www.CapitalEye.org


WILL MONEY WIN TONIGHT IN IOWA?
Winning the Iowa caucuses takes organization and money, certainly, but the biggest spenders haven't always won there. Howard Dean, Steve Forbes and Pat Robertson are just a few of the candidates who dumped money into the Hawkeye State with little to show for it. How much have the '08 candidates spent to campaign in Iowa? Well, it's hard to know. Using campaign finance reports, the best you can do is look at vendors' addresses. But the biggest expenses, like for advertising, staff and travel, are often paid out to companies and individuals outside the state. In the first nine months of this campaign, the candidates reported spending more than $13 million with Iowa-based vendors. If the true cost of the Iowa effort were known, a single top-tier campaign might have spent that much alone -- or more -- in the state. As it is, Barack Obama's reports detail about $2.6 million in Iowa expenditures from January through September, followed by Mitt Romney with about $2.4 million. By comparison, during the entire '04 presidential election cycle, including the general election, the field of mostly Democratic candidates reported spending about $8.5 million in Iowa. Leading up to the caucuses that year, the field reported spending just $5.2 million, or 40 percent of this election's reported spending.

*2008 presidential expenditures


BEFORE VOTING, COUNT CANDIDATES' CASH
Before voters in Iowa and New Hampshire select their favorite presidential candidates, the Center for Responsive Politics urges them to use OpenSecrets.org to "follow the money" financing the campaigns. Our "Race for the White House" section has extensive profiles of the fundraising and spending of each candidate's campaign, along with breakdowns of each candidate's contributors by state, metropolitan area, ZIP code, size of donation, gender and industry. "Before you vote, count the candidates' cash," CRP Executive Director Sheila Krumholz advised Iowa and New Hampshire residents, as well as those in later-voting states. "Just as it's important to know the candidates, it's important to know who got them this far and might hold sway with them in the White House." Here are some links to OpenSecrets.org that may be useful to early voters:

*Contributions by state, metro area and ZIP code: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/pres_stateAll.asp?cycle=2008
If money raised in Iowa is any indicator of popular support, Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton will win their respective caucuses tonight. And in New Hampshire, it'll be Romney and Barack Obama. But remember that these figures represent fundraising through Sept. 30 only. The fundraising and spending reports for October-December aren't due to the Federal Election Commission until after the caucuses on Jan. 31.

*Campaign finance profiles for each candidate: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp?cycle=2008
See how much the candidates raised through September and how they spent their money. These profiles include breakdowns of contributions by sector and industry, company or organization, geographic area, gender and size of donation. Just click on a candidate's name to see his or her full profile, and follow the links that appear in the left navigation bar.

*Contributions from selected industries: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/select.asp?cycle=2008
If you have strong feelings, positive or negative, about lobbyists, Wall Street, the pharmaceutical industry, insurance companies, Hollywood, the oil and gas industry or tobacco companies -- and several others -- be sure to check out which candidates have received the most money from individuals and political action committees associated with those industries. Similarly, if you work in any of these industries, you might want to know who donors in your field are supporting for president.

*Individual donor lookup: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/search_donor.asp
Search for individual Iowa donors by ZIP code or employer. See who your neighbors, coworkers and friends are supporting with their wallets.

*Presidential primary calendar: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/calendar.asp


HOLIDAY HAULS

While most people were out ringing in the new year at midnight on Dec. 31, the presidential campaigns were closing the books on the 4th Quarter of fundraising. The campaigns of Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are both saying unofficially that they raised more than $100 million in 2007, meaning they collected at least $20 million apiece in the last three months of the year. Democrat John Edwards is expected to report raising between $4 million and $5 million during the last quarter, which would bring his total to $44 million (including $8.8 million in public financing). On the Republican side, the stunning online effort of Ron Paul's supporters will probably make him the GOP's top fundraiser in Q4. Mitt Romney, the best-funded Republican to date, is expected to report between $6 million and $10 million in the final quarter, while his main Iowa competitor, Mike Huckabee, has brought in $5 million. Some of the candidates have stayed quiet on their year-end fundraising, but they'll have to tell all on Jan. 31, when reports are due to the FEC.

*Summary of each candidate's finances, Q1-Q3: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp?cycle=2008


FEC SET TO MOVE AT "WOUNDED SNAIL'S" PACE IN ELECTION YEAR

The 2008 election is expected to shatter campaign finance records, requiring a keen eye at the Federal Election Commission to ensure that all involved are following the rules. Unfortunately the government agency established to monitor elections has been forced to essentially shut down at the kickoff of this election year. Because the Senate failed to vote on whether to extend the service of three FEC commissioners, their appointments expired, leaving only two sitting commissioners. It takes four to issue any advisory opinions, settle enforcement cases or even dole out public financing to presidential candidates. The partisan squabble in the Senate largely stems from an impasse over one controversial commissioner, Republican Hans von Spakovsky, which has delayed votes on the others. Even when the commission is fully seated, it has been slow to rule, taking more than two years after the 2004 election to determine that the Swift Boat Veterans and other 527 committees operated illegally. Now the FEC is "likely to shift to wounded-snail pace," according to an editorial in the New York Times this week. The agency will continue, however, to collect candidates' campaign finance reports, so the data analysis the Center provides to the public on OpenSecrets.org should not be affected.


HAPPY ELECTION YEAR FROM CRP!
2008 is finally here, and with it elections for president and Congress, the Center's 25th anniversary and the launch of a new and improved OpenSecrets.org. Along with the increased interest in CRP's work, this year presents a huge workload for us. We thank all of you who made end-of-year contributions to support this vital work. If you didn't have a chance to contribute before '07 closed, why not make a gift to CRP your first tax deduction of '08? Please contribute online today.

*Make a contribution to support OpenSecrets.org: https://secure.groundspring.org/dn/index.php?aid=17127

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