Clinton needs to drop outFinally, the mainstream media is starting to do the math. As the Examiner reports today, Clinton would have to win something like 80 percent of the delegates after North Carolina and Indiana to go to the convention ahead of Barack Obama. It's over -- and all that Bill and Hillary are doing is damaging the Democratic Party's prospects in November by trashing the almost certain nominee.
This is nothing new to the blogosphere -- Paul Hogarth explained it nicely way back in March.
I'm not among the Hillary bashers who just can't stand her; I think she'd be a fine president. But she has adopted her husband's win-at-all-costs, scorched-earth attitude and I'm starting to think that she would rather see John McCain in the White House than Barack Obama. Because that's where her behavior is leading. She needs to drop out.
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Comments (4)
If Clinton wins the Indiana primary by more than a very slim margin, she will stay in the race. Although, as you note, Obama will still be designated the Democratic presidential candidate sometime before the August convention, unless Clinton manages truly amazing margins of victory in the primaries following the Indiana and North Carolina primaries.
If Clinton loses the Indiana primary, then she will face tremendous pressure to drop out and she will bend to that pressure, if for no other reason than to preserve her political future.
Also, it's important to note that based on current polling, Indiana is a very competitive race. As there is little time until the election, whichever candidate wins will most likely do so by a slim margin. So, unless Clinton manages to push herself significantly ahead of Obama--at least to match her margin of victory in PA--she will most likely be strongly pressured to drop out after the Indiana primary even if she should manage to eeke out a win.
I wouldn't worry about the race doing any real lasting damage to the Democrats' chances of winning in November. John McCain has not become anymore polished or eloquent during the time he has had to campaign outside of the spotlight. He has also not become anymore popular within his own party. Nor will he ever be able to compete with the Democrats on fundraising. Moreover, the few times McCain has come up in the news in-between stories of the contest between Obama and Clinton, it has generally been a story focusing on some scandal or embarassing moment for McCain. Finally, the Clinton or Obama supporters who have said in polls they wouldn't vote for the other candidate should their favored candidate lose are just blowing a lot of hot air for the most part--most (though admittedly not all) of those individuals will vote for the Democrat in November over John McCain.
I think it is very exciting to see so many newly registered voters and such an energized Democratic base. Yes, we could all do without the candidates taking nasty pot shots at each other, but I believe most voters are smart enough to filter all that out and focus on what really is at stake in the upcoming general election.
Posted by Chris | April 28, 2008 06:08 PM
If Obama wins the nomination, McCain wins the Presidency. Obama has higher negatives than Hillary. He's not connecting with the Reagan Democrats. He's not winning swing states. He alienated Florida and Michigan. He has to deal with Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Rezko, Blackwell, bittergate, etc.
Posted by goldenstate | April 28, 2008 07:39 PM
Chris, I hope you're right. I hope the Democrats can come together and vote for the eventual nominee. But I worry that McCain is already preparing to attack Obama with the ammo Clinton is giving him.
Posted by tim redmond | April 28, 2008 08:36 PM
Goldenstate, just because Camp Clinton has been blasting Obama with everything they can find does not mean he has higher negatives. She has always shown very high negatives in every poll -- it's the one-two punch of Hillary haters from the '90s and the anti-war crowd today -- and Obama does poll well with moderates, or the "Reagan Democrats" as you anachronistically refer to them. Writing wishful thoughts doesn't make them true. In fact, the war issue and the desire to change give Obama a big advantage over McCain whereas Clinton has problems with both. And just the fact that you use the word "bittergate" means that you're probably a partisan for either Clinton or McCain. Scandals concocted by the media and op-shops today hardly equal negatives six months from now.
Posted by Steven T. Jones | April 29, 2008 10:25 AM