Tim Redmond

Not good for Reilly

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By Tim Redmond
At City Hall

Well, with a little over 10 percent of the precincts counted, the numbers don't look good for Janet Reilly. After you back out the absentees, the election-day votes are running 59 percent in favor of Fiona Ma. Things will have to change pretty quick for Reilly to have a chance at all.

It appears at this point that the high-powered, well-funded negative attack ads have taken their toll.

more results and analysis

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With a few precincts starting to trickle in, here's what we have:

Ma 58, Reilly 41; this is narrowing a bit. Yee, 66, Nevin 28, Papan 5; unless San Mateo is WAY for Nevin, this one's looking pretty close to in the bag.

Prop. B is going to win, and Prop. D -- despite all of Joe O'Donoghue's money -- is going down in a huge way. The conservative absentees are against it, 67-32.

Ballot measures

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Results for the props are interesting, too. Prop. A is behind, 53-47, but that's the conservative side of town showing up in the absentees. So there's a good chance it will survive. Prop. B, the TIC-disclosure measure, is ahead, 50-49, which means it's almost certainly going to be victorious; if the conservatives are voting for it, it's over.

Prop. D is losing, big -- 32.8 yes, 67 percent no. That means this one is over, and Doug Comstock, the campaign manager, as much as admitted it to me a few minutes ago.

first results

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By Tim Redmond
At City Hall
First results are in, mostly the more-conservative absentees, and even so, there are some surprises. Leland Yee is way, way ahead in the state senate races, 66 percent to 27 percent (although part of the district is in San Mateo, so Yee can't quite celebrate yet.

Fiona Ma is well up on Janet Reilly, 58-41.

In the governor's race, Angelides and Westly are close, but Angelides is ahead, 47-44 percent. Remember, this is among absentees. I'd say that a good sign of Angelides taking San Francisco easily -- let's see what it means for the rest of the state.

Turnout and SF races

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By Tim Redmond
At City Hall

Well, our resident expert on political predictions, Chris Bowman, who is that rarest of creatures (a smart Republican), stopped by with his predictions. He estimates 42 to 44 percent turnout city wide, which is actually better than I had expected. That's based on a formula for predicting turnout based on absentees that he's used for about 15 years.

one to watch

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By Tim Redmond

As the night wears on, pay attention to the special election in the California 50th Congressional District, where Francine Busby is trying to put a heavily Republican district that had been represented by Randy "Duke" Cunningham into the Democratic column. Almost everyone agrees that this is a canary-in-the-coal-mine race that will tell us how deeply people are sick of Bush, lies, corruption, and the GOP hegemony.

maybe tomorrow

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By Tim Redmond
At City Hall

Just in case anyone hasn't figured this out yet, we may not know until tomorrow who the Democratic candidate for governor is. That's because Alameda County, which hasabout five percent of all democratic voters, won't be finished hand-counting -- yes, hand-counting -- ballots. The L.A. Times has the scoop on what happened in some detail.

turnout looks bleak

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By Tim Redmond
SF Gate is reporting low turnout and bored election workers playing sudoku. In Bernal Heights, where I live, the poll workers told me it had been very slow -- and that's not good news, since this is usually a high-turnout district.
If you haven't voted yet, go now -- our endorsements are below (scroll down)

What happened to our Web site?

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By Tim Redmond

Well, the simple answer is that we're still not sure -- but there's some indication that we were socked by a denial-of-service attack. Imagine that happening on 6/06/06, in the middle of election day.

Even the folks at DailyKos have been speculating about this, wondering if maybe the Republicans were involved somehow. I dunno; maybe someone local who didn't want our endorsements available (they are now, below, scroll down). Maybe it's just one of those things; maybe it's ....... Read more »

east bay election parties

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Here's the list of east bay parties:

Oakland Mayor

Ron Dellums
· Carneval, Behind Yoshi’s, on 2nd street
· http://www.rondellumsformayor.com/
· 510. 444. 6016

Ignacio De La Fuente
· 8:30 at Zazoo’s restaurant
· 30 Jack London Square, Oakland
· http://www.delafuenteformayor.com/homex.asp?Q=Homepage
· 510. 893. 2006

Nancy Nadel
· 8:00 or 9:00 at the Uptown Bar
· 1928 Telegraph Ave, Oakland
· http://www.nancynadelformayor.com/
· 510. 654. 6966

Oakland Assembly

Sandre Swanson
· 8:15 at Campaign HQ
· 449 15th Street (corner of Broadway) Oakland
· http://www.sandreswanson.org/
· 510. 251. Read more »