Election 2012

Preliminary RCV points to Breed, Crowley

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How incredibly strange: District Five, the most left-leaning district in the city, just elected a moderate supervisor who supports the sit-lie law and has the backing of the landlords. District 7, the most conserative district, elected a labor guy who may sometimes be a swing vote.

The preliminary RCV results show London Breed winning in D5 and FX Crowley in D7. The D7 results are close and could change; the D5 results are not. Promoted by landlord money and helped by two billionaires attacking incumbent Christina Olague, Breed is now in a position to move the board to the right.

Prop. 30 is going to be close. Really close

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Without Los Angeles, without San Francisco, with mostly the conservative counties in, it's 49 yes, 51 no on the ballot measure that will determine the fate of California. As more returns come in, it's inching up, slowly, and there's still a good chance that it will squeak through. The death-penalty repeal is starting to look bad; at 55 no, 43 yes, it's not looking good.

Finally, some clarity in SF

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So right after I complained about SF dragging its feet on returns, we get another big chunk and it shows Eric Mar taking D1 handily. Amazing: A carpet-bombing campaign of big money, and the quiet progressive pulls it out.

Now: He had the support of Rose Pak, but mostly he had troops on the ground, a lot of them from the labor movement and a lot of them pro-tenant folks who saw the clear and present danger that David Lee would bring to City Hall.Read more »

Why are SF and LA so slooooow?

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Over at the Prop. 34 party, where the early returns aren't looking good, everyone's trying to keep spirits up by noting that, while the measure to repeal the death penalty is losing, virtually no results from San Francisco or Los Angeles have been posted. Why are the two most prominent political cities in the state so slooow to post results? At 10pm, all SF has are absentees and a tiny handful of precincts. LA has sent nothing to the Secretary of State. Come on, folks: Enquiring minds want to know.

Mar jubilant at early returns

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The first precinct reports are coming in -- just a few -- and they share Sup. Eric Mar holding and even expanding his lead in District 1. Too early to call it, but Mar is jubilant and so are his supporters. Joe Fitzgerald send this report:Read more »

First results: Mar, Breed in the lead

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Remember, these are the early absentees. They may not reflect the carpet-bombing attacks of the last week. And they always tend to run a bit conservative. But the results in D1 are stunning: After enduring an $800,000 attack campaign, Sup. Eric Mar has a lead of almost five points, 48-43. Since he's got a massive GOTV program, he's positioned remarkably well.Read more »

State starts to move the right way

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State results still skewed to the conservative counties (except for San Mateo) and the number are looking lots, lots better. Prop. 30 is behind 51-48, which almost exactly mirrors Prop. 32, which is winning 51-48. This is a good trend, generally; if we're this close in the conservative absentees, from the conservative counties, we may actually pull this election out.

These are counties, for example, where repealing the death penalty is losing 55-45, and statewide, the polls show that almost a dead heat.

Very early, conservative counties no on 30, yes on 32

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There's a scattering of early returns, mostly from conservative Central Valley counties, and they should everything bad happening -- Prop. 30 failing, Prop. 32 winning, Prop. 34 and 37 losing .... but LA isn't in, the Bay Area isn't in, and none of this means much. Except: Prop. 36, the repeal of three-strikes, is going to win overwhelmingly. It looks like Prop. 39, ending a billion-dollar tax loophole, is going to win handily. And the attempt by Mercury Insurance once again to rewrite the state's car-insurance laws is going down to defeat.Read more »

Now let's worry about California

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As expected, Obama is headed for victory. Elizabeth Warren has won in MA, the tea-party rape-nut lost in Indiana, the House will stay (more narrowly) Republican, the Senate Democratic.

It looks like marriage equality is winning in every state where it's on the ballot.

So now I can start to worry about Prop. 30 and the future of California, and Districts 1and 5 and the future of San Francisco.

 

 

What's happening tonight

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According to the SF Department of Elections, the first results -- including just the absentees received before Election Day -- will be posted here at about 8:45. That will include a preliminary ranked-choice voting run, which won't be conclusive but will give people a sense of where the races are headed.

We'll be posting regular updates on this blog through the evening, trying to make sense of the numbers and reporting from the various Election Night events. Join us for the latest news and analysis.Read more »