The good news for Jerry Brown

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The press is all over the latest Field Poll, which shows Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman in a dead heat.  And it's no surprise that, thanks to a campaign that thus far has been almost entirely negative, voters aren't particularly thrilled with either candidate.

But I think there's some good news for Jerry Brown here. Whitman has spent more than $90 million so far, and the voters like her less than they did six months ago. After all that money, some of which has gone for blistering attacks on Brown, Whitman is still not ahead. And it's hard to see what she can do now to move the needle.

CallBuzz:

Moreover, it looks like the attack ads on Whitman by Brown’s labor allies — including California Working Families 2010 — have had their intended effect: to increase Whitman’s negatives and keep her from pulling away from Brown during the summer, before he can afford to put his own ads on TV.

Meanwhile, Brown’s favorability is only marginally changed from March. It’s 42-40% favorable today, compared to 41-37% favorable before. (Of course, Brown’s favorable was 50-25% back in March of 2009, but that was when he was just the new Attorney General and not a candidate for governor with rivals.)

At some point, Jerry's got to start seriously campaigning, and he's got a lot of work to do. He has to define himself to younger voters, who know a lot more about Ebay than about Brown's tenure as governor, which was generally pretty good. He has to remind Latinos of how awful Whitman is on immigration. He's got to spend some money.

But at this point, there's hardly a voter in California (at least, not one with a TV set) who hasn't seen multiple Whitman ads, defining her as a successful business person and attacking Brown as a failed politician. Those are powerful messages. The ads have been well produced, well targeted and should have been effective. And they haven't gotten her over the halfway point yet -- even against an opponent who is vulnerable to attack and hasn't campaigned much at all.

Both candidates seem to be holding the party loyalists -- the vast majority of the Republicans like Meg, the vast majority of the Democrats like Jerry. And there are more Democrats than Republicans. The independents aren't breaking Meg's way, either -- she's only slightly ahead, not enough to make up the difference.

Now if Brown can just get his people to care enough to go to the polls. ...

Comments

Meg can't buy me or scare me with her 100 million in propaganda, sorry.

I just don't vote for A** HOles, sorry Meg.

Jerry will get my vote I've already decided. So-called conservatives of today think name calling and tax opinon is all it takes to govern. I think it was P.G. O'Rourke who said it best, “Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work, and then get elected and prove it.”

I say no more to the Republicans in general. There is no such thing as a conservative. I understand the frustrations of everyone who wanted Obama to fix the world in 365 days, but I do NOT understand how anyone could be so illogical to think that Obama is an evil person bent on the destruction of this country.

There are people who vote for people that call themselves conservatives but really what you get is a bunch of theocrats who try to consolidate money and power to an elite group of ideological zealots who are willing to commit intense acts of hypocrisy simply to feel as if they have "won", like it's all some kind of game.

These toe tapping tools will stop at nothing to force your children learn myth in science classrooms such as ID or that the Earth was made 6000 years ago. These fake so called Republicans will vow that gays should not be able to live as non-gays do in our country, while simultaneously being gay in the closet. These people like to hate things. Fighting is what feels normal. These people are angry and angry people are easily exploited.

If you prefer a government that governs the least that's exactly what you are going to get. I don't believe there can be an intelligent debate with toe tapping Republican propagandist hacks. Hacks don't want to talk, they just want to be mad about something and government is an easy target. During the Bush days, the hacks were mad at Saddam, for the wrong reasons but it didn't stop them from exploiting the people into supporting a two trillion dollar tax payer funded unjust war did it? 4000 Americans and 50,000 (and counting) innocent Iraqi civilians died. Republican leaders said, "hey be mad at this", now they are saying, "hey be mad at this".

The fatalistic tragedians of our nation fall in line.

Posted by ApostasyUSA on Jul. 07, 2010 @ 4:49 pm

As Jerry Brown recently said, regarding his many decades of public service to California and knowledge of our state government from every vantage point... "Knowing is better than not knowing." I wish he'd run on that, and repeat that sound bite, ad infinitum. Meg Whitman knows nothing of our state government, yet is actually criticizing Brown's knowledge as if it were something detrimental, instead of a solid asset, acquired from decades of involvement and service in our state. That's how Orwellian her slick ads are.

Imagine a billionaire waking up one day, restless, and looking in the mirror and saying, “Gee, I think I’ll be governor.” Sound preposterous? Read on. Let’s see… Meg Whitman has already spent $90-$100 million of her own money, and has vowed to spend $150 million to get the governorship. She promises to be a strict fiscal guardian of our (we, the taxpayers of California) money. How could we believe that, after witnessing such a disgusting, sickening display of excess, right down to private jets with ‘white glove service’?! What… she’ll turn on a dime and change? By the way, where do you think she’s got a lot of her +$1 billion stashed away… that’s right… the Cayman Islands.

Then ask yourself, what’s the most basic act of a participatory democracy? Voting! Ms. Whitman did not vote for almost 3 decades… 28 years of no voting. Think of all the critical issues facing our society during those past 3 decades, and where was she? AWOL… couldn’t be bothered to even vote… she was too busy making her first $billion! I think of single parents, low income voters, and people with 2 or 3 jobs and hardships in their lives, and still… they found a way to cast their votes! Again, Whitman couldn’t be bothered. Now she wants to run California, Inc.

Then there’s the matter of how she conducted herself, at the pinnacle of her career, as a corporate CEO. Well, that doesn’t look too good, either, from the viewpoint of average, hardworking Californians. Fact: She, along with Carly Fiorina, are ’serial outsourcers’, having shipped tens of thousands of good paying California jobs to India. They have a jobs plan, alright… for India. This callous and heartless behavior illustrates their lack of dedication and loyalty to the California working and middle class, by laying off tens of thousands and sending those same jobs to India. A race to the bottom for American workers and that cruel, transnational mentality, started in this country by Jack Welch, the former CEO of GE, who discovered he could outsource millions of middle class American jobs to India, with all the English speakers there. He started it, and Meg and Carly really ratcheted it up, all the while raking in obscene amounts of money and ever so removed from the suffering they directly caused by their allegiance to their corporation, and none to the California workforce and our state. In one 5 year period, Meg Whitman increased offshore employment 660% at EBay. Shame on both of them.

Jerry Brown has a very good record to run on, and I am proud to support him. During his tenure as governor, 1.9 million jobs were created. California became the leader in renewable energy. He had a $5 billion rainy day surplus at the end of his first term. Jerry Brown was a visionary then, and he is now. We have never needed his experience, skills and wisdom more than now. He wants an ‘agenda of humility’ and a focus on honesty, frugality, shared sacrifice and innovation. That sounds exactly right. As he has stated, he has an ‘insider’s experience and an outsider’s mind.’ And that’s what it’s going to take to get us out of the bind and bring our beloved California to a new prosperity and health. Go Jerry! I’m with you 100% and will be volunteering on your ‘people’s campaign’. http://www.jerrybrown.org

Posted by Guest on Jul. 07, 2010 @ 5:22 pm

well I guess you all can dream on. Voters under 40 don't know about Brown's disastrous former governorship. Mayor of Oakland? Who cares? 95% of voters live outside Oakland and don't know or care. Attorney General? Please find 9 out of 10 voters who could ID the AG if offered money to do so.

The reality is that the likely voters don't know Brown and don't care about his "years of public service". In an election cycle where vorters are not inclined to send place holders back to office, this is not good news for Brown.

I suggest you hold off the noisemakers.

so.

Posted by Guest on Jul. 07, 2010 @ 6:28 pm

With all her money, Ms. Whitle$$ hasn't come up with anything except the usual Republican bromides..cut taxes, make government "more efficient", yadayadayada..Unless she explicitly confronts the fundamental flaws in our current state governance..i.e., the two thirds rule, the idiocy of term limits guaranteeing that skill and institutional memory remain the province of lobbyists, the initiative process itself which has become the mirror opposite of what it was created for..controlling big corporations, and the catastrophe that has been visited upon us by Prop. 13 and kid glove treatment to commercial real estate interests, she has no business running at all.
As to her resume, spending time at Goldman Sachs, that paragon of piratical plutocracy and Mammom worship, I think I'll pass. As to Ebay, its a perfect analogy for what is happening to our nation. We all spent to much on useless junk and now we are desparately trying to pawn it off on someone else..Way to go Meg!

Posted by Guest on Jul. 08, 2010 @ 2:57 pm