Right now, D10 watchers are driving themselves crazy trying to predict the ranked choice math in a 22-candidate race. And so far it looks like it’s a toss-up between Tony Kelly, Lynette Sweet and Malia Cohen, with Steve Moss and Marlene Tran trailing in fourth and fifth place in a contest in which race, neighborhood and inter-campaign alliances will likely prove to be the decisive factors.
So far, about 10,000 votes have been cast and counted in D10. Based on a preliminary vote count yesterday, Kelly was leading (13.19 percent, 1,310 votes) Sweet is in second place (12.29 percent, 1,220 votes) and Cohen is in third place (11.90 percent, 1,182 votes) yesterday. And as of 4 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 4, , Kelly remains first( 12.77 percent, 1, 375 votes), Sweet is second (12.08 percent, 1,300 votes), and Cohen is third (11.65 percent, or 1254 votes).
Together this trio account so far for 36.50 percent of the vote. But according to the Elections Department, there are 71,000 vote-by-mail ballots that have yet to be counted and 14,000 provisional ballots, so the outcome continues to be far from certain.
But of these 85,000 citywide votes, only 8 percent are estimated to be from D10. Still, it's too early to count out Steve Moss and Marlene Tran. Moss was in fourth place (11.33 percent, or 1,125 votes) and Tran was in fifth place ( 9.91 percent, or 984 votes) yesterday. And as of 4 p.m. this afternoon, Moss remained fourth (11.13 percent, or 1198 votes) and Tran remained fifth ((10.83 percent, or 1,166 votes), and the odds remain against them. And here's why:
The majority of the remaining 16 bottom-ranked candidates are based or have roots in the Bayview. And it seems fair to predict that their supporters will cast their second and third-place votes primarily along race and neighborhood lines, which will likely benefit Cohen and Sweet.
But the November 2010 election also illustrates the growing importance of the Asian-American vote in D10, as evidenced by Tran and Teresa Duque's relatively strong showing. Kelly is most likely to benefit from Tran's candidacy, since she endorsed Kelly as her 2nd choice, but that's presuming that her supporters actually follow her advice.
Less clear is where Moss and Tran will get second or third place votes. Some observers believe Moss could benefit from Kristine Enea supporters and Tran could benefit from Kelly’s. But at this point, the money is on Sweet being pushed over the finish line by Cohen's supporters, unless Cohen and/or Kelly manage to win a significant number of second and third-choice votes, district wide.
Elections will post a preliminary ranked-choice voting report at 4 p.m. Friday, November 5, so stay tuned. But Elections spokesperson Rachel Gosiengfiao warns that this report will "only provide a snapshot and not a final report".
"We still have the vote-by-mails and the provisionals," Gosiengfiao said.
In the meantime, here's the complete list of the updated D10 results, so that you can look at the numbers and play the ongoing D10 crapshoot game :
ASHLEY H RHODES 173 1.61%
MARLENE TRAN 1166 10.83%
MALIA COHEN 1254 11.65%
JAMES M. CALLOWAY 272 2.53%
STEPHEN WEBER 221 2.05%
DIANE WESLEY SMITH 239 2.22%
TONY KELLY 1375 12.77%
KRISTINE ENEA 324 3.01%
NYESE JOSHUA 77 0.72%
ELLSWORTH ''ELL'' JENNISON 40 0.37%
CHRIS JACKSON 645 5.99%
DEWITT M. LACY 793 7.37%
M.J. MARIE FRANKLIN 46 0.43%
LYNETTE SWEET 1300 12.08%
ERIC SMITH 295 2.74%
JACKIE NORMAN 103 0.96%
GEOFFREA MORRIS 202 1.88%
STEVE MOSS 1198 11.13%
ED DONALDSON 129 1.2%
TERESA DUQUE 778 7.23%
RODNEY HAMPTON, JR. 134 1.24%