New mumbers: Mirkarimi, Avalos surge

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The next round of numbers are in, and the first clear trend is the Ross Mirkarimi is surging. Mirkarimi is 36 percent, to 28 percent for Miyamoto -- but when you back out the absentee vote, he's getting 45 percent of the election-day votes. Cunnie is going to finish second. If turnout is good, Mirkarimi's in very good shape.

The mayor's race is tightening up quite a bit, but Lee is still well ahead. He's at 33 percent with Avalos at 16 percent -- but here's what's interesting. In the election day (non absentee) votes, Avalos has gained 11,416 votes; Lee has gained 14,225. So in terms of the election day turnout, Avalos is only a few thousand votes behind.

Herrera, in third, has picked up 5,640 votes on election day.

So right now it looks like Lee first, Avalos second -- and if Lee finishes with more than 30 percent, it's going to be hard for anyone to catch him.