The race for sheriff


This one's going to be interesting. In my hasty first post I wrote that Chris Cunnie was trailing Mirkarimi, but in fact, the second-place candidate is Paul Miyamoto. That's interesting because I didn't think Miyamoto could win -- but he's obviously getting some benefit from the strong Asian vote. I figured Cunnie was the real threat to Mirkarimi, and I still think he is -- but Mirkarimi did well enough in the absentees that he's probably going to get a fair number of Miyamoto's second-place votes.

And I still think Miyamoto will drop to third by the end of the night, will be eliminated in the ranked-choice voting runoff -- and his second-place votes will determine who the next sheriff will be.




Asians vote for Asians - hence Miyamoto (who's Japanese - a tiny percentage of San Francisco's population) so let's see where the next votes go.

Posted by guest on Nov. 08, 2011 @ 10:26 pm

It will be interesting to see if the 2nd choices of voters for David Wong mostly follow the current percertages among the top 3 candidates or if there is a higher percentage split to Paul Miyomoto, who is 1,200 votes behind Chris Cunnie with only 8,700 hundred potential votes to be allocated in the 1st round. Even if Ross only gets 25% of Wong voter's 2nds, Miyamoto would need a 60:40 split of the remaining ballots to reach Cunnie.

Regardless of who is 2nd or 3rd, with Ross currently leading by 13,000 votes, the #2 candidate would need almost 70:30 of the 3rd place candidate ballots to reach Ross' likely insurmountable total, unless there is a strong "anti-progressive" bias to voters who preferred Miyamoto or Cunnie. There should be approximately 36-38,000 votes of the 3rd place finisher that will determine the new Sheriff, assuming 10-15% exhasted ballots from both rounds, which means it looks like we'll need to get used to saying hello to Sheriff Ross for many years until he wins an election for another office. SF Mayor in 8 years is my guess.

Posted by Guest on Nov. 08, 2011 @ 11:53 pm

Wong has been ignored, but that 6.5% will be crucial. The above analysis is about right, so it's going to be really close. If Miyamoto stays in third, Ross probably wins, though it will be closer than many people think. If Wong's votes manage to push Miyamoto into second, Cunnie's seconds will go hard for Miyamoto. Ross could potentially lose in that scenario.

I still think Ross is the favorite, but we'll know more tomorrow.

Posted by Greg on Nov. 09, 2011 @ 12:38 am