What the early numbers show


For starters, they show that turnout is going to be low. Some people predict that the absentees will represent almnost half the votes cast; if that's the case, then total turnout will be around 30 percent. I think that's low -- but it's a safe bet that fewer than half the registered voters have gone to the polls.

If the low turnout trend continues, then Ed Lee's lead is insurmountable.

The numbers suggest that Michela Alioto-Pier -- who is in seventh place, only a few votes ahead of the widely discredited Tony Hall -- is going nowhere. The same goes for Jeff Adachi, who is in sixth place.

Interesting also that David Chiu is ahead of Leland Yee (only by a handful of votes, but still ahead) in what looks like a westside and Chinatown absentee turnout. 

Scott Wiener isn't faring well tonight; both of his measures (Prop. E, which would allow the supervisors to amend some ballot initiatives) and Prop. F (which would change the registration requirements for political consultants) are losing badly.

I'm a little nervous about the sales tax, Prop. G., which needs a two-thirds vote and is now trailing 57-42. That's a lot of ground to make up -- and if it loses, it blows a big hole in the mayor's budget.

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