Will Obama win in 2012?


Right now, all the signs say no -- the economy isn't improving, he's pissing off his base, the GOP kicked his ass in the 2010 midterms, and a vast majority of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. But then, at this time in 1991, all the signs said that George Bush I was unbeatable.

And then, of course, you have the Republican candidates.

That's why the political consultant brain trust at CalBuzz predicts by a 2-1 margin that Obama will be relected. We're talking Democrats and Republicans, from across the ideological spectrum (although mostly centrist; there aren't many radical political consultants, since they have to make a living working with all sorts of candidates).

I always get these things wrong -- a good way to win an election-day bet is to listen to my predictions then go the other way -- and I'm not the Obama supporter I once was. But I think these folks have a point -- is there a single Republican now in the field who won't self-destruct by the end of next year, in the heat of battle? You can say all you want about his namby-pamby positions and the bimbo eruptions, but Bill Clinton was a hell of a campaigner -- and it takes a hell of a campaigner to unseat an incumbent president, no matter how bad he looks in the polls.

Some of their comments:

As much as history points to no president being re-elected with unemployment numbers this high, there is no sign that the GOP can get its act together and nominate anyone capable of defeating Obama. As amazing as it may be the GOP is poised to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory — what a party!

Romney, the probable GOP nominee, combines most of the worst features of Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore and John Kerry. That’s some feat — and it won’t get him to the White House.

Obama will win . . . more because the Republican field is pathetic.  “Mittens” is the likely winner, but has flip-flopped more than a tuna on the deck of a boat.

Harsh -- but possibly true. Thoughts?

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