Will Obama win in 2012?

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(43)

Right now, all the signs say no -- the economy isn't improving, he's pissing off his base, the GOP kicked his ass in the 2010 midterms, and a vast majority of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. But then, at this time in 1991, all the signs said that George Bush I was unbeatable.

And then, of course, you have the Republican candidates.

That's why the political consultant brain trust at CalBuzz predicts by a 2-1 margin that Obama will be relected. We're talking Democrats and Republicans, from across the ideological spectrum (although mostly centrist; there aren't many radical political consultants, since they have to make a living working with all sorts of candidates).

I always get these things wrong -- a good way to win an election-day bet is to listen to my predictions then go the other way -- and I'm not the Obama supporter I once was. But I think these folks have a point -- is there a single Republican now in the field who won't self-destruct by the end of next year, in the heat of battle? You can say all you want about his namby-pamby positions and the bimbo eruptions, but Bill Clinton was a hell of a campaigner -- and it takes a hell of a campaigner to unseat an incumbent president, no matter how bad he looks in the polls.

Some of their comments:

As much as history points to no president being re-elected with unemployment numbers this high, there is no sign that the GOP can get its act together and nominate anyone capable of defeating Obama. As amazing as it may be the GOP is poised to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory — what a party!

Romney, the probable GOP nominee, combines most of the worst features of Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore and John Kerry. That’s some feat — and it won’t get him to the White House.

Obama will win . . . more because the Republican field is pathetic.  “Mittens” is the likely winner, but has flip-flopped more than a tuna on the deck of a boat.

Harsh -- but possibly true. Thoughts?

Comments

Does it matter? Until we dismantle the two party corporate millitary dictatorship, we are all in deep doo doo.

Posted by Eddie on Nov. 16, 2011 @ 5:36 pm
Posted by Guest on Jan. 06, 2012 @ 3:21 pm

Looks like this author was waaaaaaay off.... Obama 2012

Posted by John on Feb. 18, 2012 @ 8:41 am

PIGASUS FOR PRESIDENT

Posted by Patrick Monk. RN on Nov. 16, 2011 @ 5:47 pm

This world will be changed by the new movement in our streets and neighborhoods and workplaces, not buy whoever sits in the Whitehouse.

Posted by Aragorn on Nov. 16, 2011 @ 6:21 pm

It seems to me that your comment was the theme of the communist takeover of Russia during the early 1900's when the ignorant and poor slaughtered the Tzar and his family. We really do need a radical, leftist, socialist government here so that no one has any real drive to move ahead, just let the government take care of everything.

See what happened to Communism in the USSR??????

Posted by Guest Boboj on Feb. 17, 2012 @ 5:22 am

No, Obama won't win because the economy will crash. You can hear the rumblings in Europe now over fears of collapse of the Eurozone. It's just a matter of time before it reaches us here.

As Andrew Cockburn blogs, the banks are essentially insolvent, but through fraudulent valuation and accounting practices, they have managed to mask this inconvenient fact~

"...a huge proportion of the assets of Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, and Citigroup consist of loans that will never be paid back and are therefore essentially worthless. The so called “recovery” of our leading financial institutions from the post-Lehman abyss has depended on a fraudulent valuation of these assets, but stripped of the fiction, the banks are insolvent."

http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/10/21/banks-on-the-brink/

I don't think this necessarily means that the Repugs will win either. In fact, there was never a better time to put forth a third-party candidate. People are pissed at both parties, whether on the Left and the Right. The danger is that someone representing an extremist group like the Tea Partiers could sweep into the White House.

The Occupy and Tea Party movements signify that business as usual is no longer acceptable to most Americans. We will have change, but what that will look like, I'm not sure. Still, I think we are at a tipping point, and we're going to see a very different landscape politically in 2012, or at least by 2016.

As the famous saying/ 'curse' goes, "May you live in interesting times." We do.

Posted by Lisa on Nov. 16, 2011 @ 6:23 pm

Does it really matter who wins? Could it get any worse? HOW PATHETIC! You can hold your nose to keep the stench out of voting for the lesser of two evils, but the stench nevertheless will cling to your clothing. Time to stop wallowing in the sewer

Posted by Guest Denise on Nov. 16, 2011 @ 10:05 pm

PIGASUS.

Posted by Patrick Monk. RN on Nov. 16, 2011 @ 10:29 pm

Yes, the Republicans are blowing it. We would be in trouble if Jeb Bush was in, or jumped in, but I hear that he is staying out. And the President still has some ideas on how to turn things around--and the economy is looking better too. And there are some ingenious ways to deal with the partisanship too--options that the president has and may deploy.

Posted by Charley_sf on Nov. 16, 2011 @ 10:37 pm

Didn't he criticize Hillary for her mandate during the debates?

Wasn't he going to close Gitmo?

...no need to go on.

Posted by Guest on Nov. 17, 2011 @ 12:04 am

With the international banking system in a state of insolvency do you think people are going to want to elect an investment banker like Romney to run the country?
Pray hard that Obama will be re elected and work harder to help make it happen. The United States will be in very deep trouble otherwise and the destruction may not be reparable in our lifetimes

Posted by Traderkitten on Nov. 17, 2011 @ 8:12 am

Robert Rubin, Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, William Daley.

Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase now -run- this country.

Did you just fall off of a turnip truck...?

It is complete rose-colored-glasses-wearing idiots like you (and now the national SEIU) that are guiding the U.S. into utter collapse by ludicrously promoting the absolutely inane idea that Obama is somehow a bastion against the finance capitalists.

What a complete bunch of fucking horse shit.

Barack Obama is the Chief Operating Officer that international investment bankers have -hand picked- to run the U.S. government for them.

For god's sake, wake the hell up...

Posted by Eric Brooks on Nov. 17, 2011 @ 11:34 am

It does not matter. My bet is that the Republicans win it all because the Democrats have folded like chairs, gone down like the $3 whores that they are.

With their mid-20% of voters "win" based on their opponents' forfeit, the Republicans will try to implement libertarian capitalism as if they had a mandate.

And they will end up as the reverse of Chile 1973, where Allende won with a plurality and tried to implement socialism and got slapped down hard.

In this case, America is not a libertarian capitalist society, and any efforts to further double down on stupid economics just because there was no electoral opposition will be Occupied by a public that will have no more of it.

Posted by marcos on Nov. 17, 2011 @ 10:56 am

Peter Camejo was right.

Posted by Matt Stewart on Nov. 17, 2011 @ 4:36 pm

No, Camejo was wrong about what counts, what to do about it and prevail.

Posted by marcos on Nov. 17, 2011 @ 6:42 pm

As it is, Romney is the elast flawed but he mght be to boring to beat Obama. The voters always reject boring candidates like Gore, Kerry and McCain.

But even if Obama wins, he'll be facing a GOP House and probably by then a GOP Senate, Lame duck.

Posted by Guest on Nov. 17, 2011 @ 11:56 am

I really liked Candidate Obama, but President Obama is an entirely different guy, who somehow thinks the Constitution lets him start wars and assassinate people on his own authority and hasn't closed the unconstitutional prison at Gitmo. (I'm not counting the economy's problems - I didn't think he had the superpowers it would take to fix the Bush Administration's economic catastrophe this fast.)

Marcos is right about how the Democrats have caved in to just about everything the Republicans wanted, though I hope he's wrong predicting they'll win in 2012.

But he's entirely wrong about the Republicans wanting "libertarian capitalism" - there's nothing libertarian about them, even though they pretend there is when they're making speeches. Not only have they not stopped the Drug Wars and the Invading-Other-Countries Wars and Warrantless Wiretapping and imprisonment without due process, so they're not social-freedom libertarians, they're not even economic libertarians. They like spending money on military pork-barrel projects, and won't consider cutting those, and like big powerful intrusive government agencies (like Homeland Security) even though they make speeches about smaller government, and they don't want any public or Congressional oversight of their pet agencies. They pretend to dislike taxes, but Bush tripled the Federal Debt by increasing military spending, and debt is just taxes that somebody else will have to pay later; Republicans like it when they're in office because they know they can blame Democrats for it later. Lots of the Republicans don't like free trade, and they don't like the freedom of migration for workers that's part of it.

Basically, the Republicans are a bunch of scammers who made the country and the world a much worse place when they were in power, and it's not hard to blame Obama for things that they did wrong because he hasn't fixed them.
I'm voting for real Libertarians when I can, but I'll vote for Greens or Peace&Freedom or Crazy Cat Ladies before voting Democrat, and I'm not voting for Republicans until they clean up the corruption in their party, which will probably take a couple of decades.

Posted by Bill Stewart on Nov. 18, 2011 @ 1:24 am

Neoliberalism has nothing to do with laissez-faire capitalist libertarianism.

Obama has not just made no effort to push a center/left agenda, he's done his best to ensure that his proposals are liked by Republicans. How many times have you heard Obama say "Ah kaint see whah the Republicans are opposing my plahn, because mah plahn is a Republican plahn!"

(Even though Obama has never lived in the south, he tries to speak like a redneck to appease the hicks.)

So he's going to be running for reelection, economic headwinds increasing, having had his base abandon him for abandoning them, most certainly going to lose the Senate.

Given this pathetic situation, I'm probably going to reregister DTS so that I can vote for Ron Paul in the primary in June. This is not because I support Paul's libertarian capitalism, to the contrary. I'll swallow hard on that because at the end of the day, libertarian capitalism and crony neoliberal capitalism are equally distasteful to me.

The clincher is that Paul will inject a critique of the Empire into the debate which is critical if we are to break the deadlock that keeps us moving towards debt peonage and the global south in a constant state of brutal squalor.

Our domestic circumstances, even if they deteriorate, are not fatal for us, not when compared with the corpses the empire piles high in the global south.

Posted by marcos on Jan. 12, 2012 @ 11:21 am

That is some pretty racist commentary. Did someone get banned from the steam room?

Posted by Vibral on Feb. 17, 2012 @ 6:49 am

Obama is going to win he is doing the best he could to help this country survive he made several successful achievements that we benefit of.

Posted by Guest on Dec. 08, 2011 @ 3:29 pm

since the GOP field is widely split.

But the Senate will almost definitely pass to the GOP next year so it's largely a moot issue. Obama is already a lame duck and I'm not seeing anything that will change that.

Posted by Guest on Dec. 08, 2011 @ 4:00 pm

I WILL NOT vote Omaba again, I made the BIGGEST MISTAKE of voting for him but he has deceived me in every way.

Now, he not only want to forgiven ILLEGALS by allowing them to stay in this country to resolve their illigal immigration status, but my husband still WITHOUT HEALTH INSURANCE til the day today and he works his ass off.

WHERE IS THAT UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE that I VOTED HIM FOR??? The economy is just as bad if not worse!

I wish NOT to have him for a president this next elections.

Posted by Guest on Jan. 06, 2012 @ 2:54 pm

I might believe what you are saying but you can't spell. It sucks that America is so uneducated

Posted by Guest on Mar. 13, 2012 @ 7:44 pm

If OBAMA WINS you all better start learning SPANISH becaus Obama is trying to pass a bill that will allow ILLIGAL IMMIGRANTS to stay in this country to resolve their ILLEGAL STATUS! I can see that he will pass the DREAM ACT and a chance to AMNESTY to all those folks who refuses to learn ENGLISH!

Posted by Guest on Jan. 06, 2012 @ 2:59 pm
Posted by Guest on Jan. 06, 2012 @ 3:24 pm

YES HE WIILL WIN IN 2012.

Posted by Guest on Jan. 08, 2012 @ 7:42 pm

obama has repeatedly shown that he a prez without IDEAS and SAVVY..That alone should he be ousted..The potus is not for the 'fainthearted,observer style gover.confused and without the full sentiment and backing of the American ppl...he has destroyed the 'vote of confidence miserably!!..Stop this inept,reckless and greedy prez from ruining the country!

Posted by Guest on Jan. 12, 2012 @ 10:58 am

obama has repeatedly shown that he a prez without IDEAS and SAVVY..That alone should he be ousted..The potus is not for the 'fainthearted,observer style gover.confused and without the full sentiment and backing of the American ppl...he has destroyed the 'vote of confidence miserably!!..Stop this inept,reckless and greedy prez from ruining the country!

Posted by Guest on Jan. 12, 2012 @ 10:59 am

it won't much matter whether Obama or Romney wins. Romney is well to the left of the GOP and will be constrained on policy in the same way as Obama was.

Posted by Guest on Jan. 12, 2012 @ 11:03 am

With friends like Newt Gingrich firing the first shot in Obomber's campaign, who knows what might transpire.
http://www.webcasts.com/kingofbain

Posted by Patrick Monk. RN on Jan. 12, 2012 @ 11:11 am

Not the same as saying that I *want* him to win, but as a prediction only, I think he'll win.

The Republicans will put up their strongest candidate. The others would go down in flames. Unfortunately their strongest candidate is Mitt Romney, and Romney has several big problems.

1. He's Mormon, and his radical base won't be too excited about that. I know a few conservative evangelicals. They don't even think Mormons are Christians. They may not vote for the black guy, but a chunk of them may well stay home.

2. He has no principles whatsoever. Neither does Obama, but in Romney's case, his reputation as a "flip-flopper" is more glaringly evident, and thus easy to exploit by the Obama campaign.

3. And this is something that we're finding out just now... he is absolutely incapable of hiding the fact that he's the candidate of Wall Street. He's on record saying that he likes to fire people, that corporations are people too, and that income inequality should only be talked about in quiet rooms. So just when the country is waking up to income inequality and the rape of the 99% by the 1%, the Republicans nominate a candidate who is so obviously a creature of Wall Street and the 1%. While he has a year to learn not to make these gaffes in the debates, he also has a whole year to make a few more, and you can bet that the Obama campaign will studiously collect these gaffes and then regurgitate them in campaign commercials, all the while painting Obama as a champion of the middle class. Whether he is or not is immaterial. The point is that he (Obama) will have a much easier time convincing the public.

Obama, OTOH, has a few things going for him. I do believe the employment situation will improve. We're at the "official" rate of 8.5% now, and the immediate trajectory is downwards. Whether or not you believe that neoliberal capitalism is a sustainable system in the long run (I don't), official unemployment looks to be in the 7's by October 2012. Obama will credibly be able to make the argument that it's "morning in America."

And... whether you like him or not, you have to admit that the man has some mad political skills, and those skills will serve him well for re-election, just like they served him well to come from behind to defeat the Clinton juggernaut.

Posted by Greg on Jan. 12, 2012 @ 12:09 pm

Of course Obama will win. He's the best candidate. The opposition is filled with too much hatred and anger and they will direct it where ever they can. Right now they are directing it at themselves like a bunch of kids having temper tantrums. They have become so habitual about blaming america's problems on someone else that they are willing to focus that rage towards their fellow republicans.

The reality is that most americans don't believe, in their hearts, that the country is that screwed up. If you look around the world you will see examples of much more screwed up countries and people know that. For most americans the temper tantrums and anger will be a massive turn off and get very old.

In the last election, I had several friends and family members who would tell people they were voting for McCain but secretly voted for Obama. They would never let anyone know this because they fear being demonized by their right wing friends or religous radicals at church. I think this happens a lot and I think it will happen this time as well.

This isn't a game and you can't just say the country is in trouble so you can get elected. Obama has done a lot to dig us out of the hole we were in and he's making progress. Let's keep up the momentum.

Posted by Guest on Jan. 16, 2012 @ 1:20 pm

Have you seen the recent rants and ravings by Senator Irene Waters, Democrat from Calfornia???

Posted by Guest Boboj on Feb. 17, 2012 @ 5:30 am

I'm guessing you ain't from around here, son.

Posted by Greg on Feb. 17, 2012 @ 10:28 am

incumbency is huge. Only one incumbent has lost and failed to get a second term since Jimmy Carter. So I expect Obama to win, although probably quite narrowly.

The more interesting race is the Senate. If that goes to the GOP, which looks likely, then Obama will be a lame duck. Not what we really want or need in an economic crisis. Still, he has shown some ability to compromise, and he'll need to do a lot more of that.

Posted by Guest on Jan. 16, 2012 @ 2:11 pm

The economy was terrible when Obama was elected. Change was what everyone wanted and change was what they received [i'll let your opinions evaluate the changes]. I had a lot of hope for Obama. Pay attention to the stock market in the coming months before November; a strong rally could signal a second term. A rise in inflation, unemployment or a persistent bear market could turn this election into a real nail biter. Unfortunately this will be the case.

In terms of prospects, my vote is for Ron Paul. I am republican but would vote for him no matter which party; I despise the other republican candidates and admire Paul for his consistency and patriotism

I find it interesting how people focus on low unemployment, a strong dollar, healthcare, the military, etc. Stop listening to the national media and really really dive in to the meat of these issues. I support well informed voters and look with sadness upon those who for lack of effort make an ill informed decision... I've stood corrected many times and wish others do the same..

1) employment has not changed all that much.. there is a difference between those filing for unemployment and those who are unemployed and don't even bother filing for unemployment. The true number is still close to 400,00 and that is why the Obama administration did not jump on the good news immediately.

2) The dollar, FOREX market, etc. is not determined by any president/administration/government but by complex economic factors [Dept of Treasury has little power to wield and determine how strong it is compared to Euro, yuan, etc.... ]

3) Healthcare will be a failure. It is not the government's fault or the states fault. It's OUR fault. We've passed our own responsibility to remain as healthy/active/fit as we can. It starts with our own belief that diet/excercise is the key to avoid preventable diseases.

My rant is over.... I could talk for hours :-)

RON PAUL 2012!!!!!!

Posted by makebuleev on Jan. 20, 2012 @ 4:40 pm

Ron Paul!

Posted by Guest on Jan. 25, 2012 @ 7:01 pm

I don't known better man and president for America...

Posted by Tom on Jan. 26, 2012 @ 10:16 am

Tom,

As a die-hard democrat (apparently you are) I am sure you would vote for a dead donkey if it was nominated by your pary to run for President.

When I was a young man and it came time for me to vote (in 1949) for the first time, my father was a union democratic robot and his instructions to me were : "boy, when you get into that booth, just pull down all of the levers on the democratic side".

Posted by Guest Boboj on Feb. 17, 2012 @ 5:28 am

i belive he willl even though most people dont like him but he is goinhg to win it is going to be close but i am almost willing to bet that he wins

Posted by jecayla on Jan. 28, 2012 @ 9:34 am

obama isnt a bad president but honestly the economy is already down the shit, so even four years of presidency couldnt really bring us back up like that, doesnt matter who wins presidensy, obama, santourum , we're all swimming in shit and its already too late honestly, its going to take a good amount of presidency and long years before our nation is out of the toliet

Posted by Guestshantea on Feb. 19, 2012 @ 1:26 pm

Obama out

Posted by Guest on Nov. 06, 2012 @ 5:18 pm