Tobacco tax: It's going to be way too close

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About 25 percent of the vote in. 50.6 Yes, 49.4 No. Trending the wrong way. This is going to be very close.

I didn't believe that the tobacco companies could beat this thing, and I thought the results from LA would push the Yes vote, but in LA county, Prop. 29 is losing. Odd to see the absentees more liberal than the election-day votes, but let's remember: As the polls showed this getting closer, Big Tobacco threw more and more money into the strategic areas, and that's clearly had an impact.

Wow. This could actually go down.

And if Californians aren't going to tax cigarettes, which only about 12 percent of Californians even smoke, what does that say about the impact a big-money campaign could have against Gov. Brown's tax measures in the fall?