First results: Mar, Breed in the lead

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Remember, these are the early absentees. They may not reflect the carpet-bombing attacks of the last week. And they always tend to run a bit conservative. But the results in D1 are stunning: After enduring an $800,000 attack campaign, Sup. Eric Mar has a lead of almost five points, 48-43. Since he's got a massive GOTV program, he's positioned remarkably well.

District 5 is equally stark: London Breed has a huge lead, 32-19, over Sup. Christina Olague. But here's where it will get interesting: Breed may not get a lot of second-place votes -- and a group of challengers who are roughly in the same political camp are bunched up right behind her with about 13 percent of the vote. This one will absolutely be a test of RCV.

District 7 is a surprise only in that the most conservative of the major candidates, Mike Garcia -- who had the support of the incumbent, Sean Elsbernd -- is in third place, well behind Norman Yee and F.X. Crowley. Hard to see how he's going to emerge from that with a victory -- meaning D7 could move out of the conservative camp and become a swing district.

All of the important ballot measures are doing fine. Prop. A looks like it will pass (66 percent from the absentees), Prop. B is passing easily, the Housing Trust Fund, Prop. C is way ahead, the Gross Receipts Tax, Prop. E, is winning handily ... and the moronic "drain Hetch Hetchy" plan is going down to defeat.

 

Comments

Uh, Prop B needs a 2/3rds supermajority as it's a city bond. Wouldn't say it's passing easily at this point...

Posted by Guest on Nov. 06, 2012 @ 9:21 pm

I'm not sure Prop B is a done deal. It needs 66% to win and has 70% with only absentees reporting.

Posted by Eric Brooks on Nov. 06, 2012 @ 9:26 pm
Posted by Troll II on Nov. 06, 2012 @ 10:01 pm

That is not how ranked choice works. Ranked choice is run in successive recounts until a candidate has 50% +1. (So it looks like Mar has won in D1.)

But Breed has only 28%, and the more progressive candidates together have more than 50%. A progressive is therefore likely to prevail unless a lot of voters think that Breed is a progressive, which is not likely.

Posted by anonymous on Nov. 06, 2012 @ 10:54 pm

Took 5 rounds but she eliminated Olague on the 5th round, receiving 56.19% of the vote. Link is here http://sfelections.org/results/20121106/data/d5.html

Posted by Troll II on Nov. 06, 2012 @ 11:07 pm

I though I read on sfgate or somewhere that DOE would run a very preliminary RCV before the end of the election night, even though many provisional and other ballots will slightly affect the final numbers. I couldn't find any prelim RCV numbers on their homepage even though 100% of all precincts reported.

Posted by Guest on Nov. 06, 2012 @ 11:10 pm

The ranked choice results are there, but DOE made them very difficult to notice.

From the main results page at http://sfelections.org/results/20121106/index.php you need to click the button at the top that reads 'Detailed Reports'.

This leads to the preliminary RCV results.

Posted by Eric Brooks on Nov. 06, 2012 @ 11:43 pm

Good assessment of RCV, anonymous, but you are completely wrong. Here is the RCV tally showing that Breed won with 60%:

http://sfelections.org/results/20121106/data/d5.html

But hey...RCV isn't confusing, is it? People understand it because they fill out all three names.

Posted by Troll on Nov. 06, 2012 @ 11:12 pm

Now he's eliminated in favor of FX Crowley. Which is a better result.

Anyway - it looks like it's Breed and FX Crowley!

Posted by Troll II on Nov. 06, 2012 @ 11:32 pm

You're right...it does say Crowley now. Maybe if we wait a few minutes RCV will say something else. The web page does look screwed up.

Ironically, Crowley is against RCV so if he is really the winner he could be part of a movement to get rid of this nonsense.

Posted by Troll on Nov. 06, 2012 @ 11:41 pm

after RCV came into play. Happened with Malia Cohen and Mark Farrell too. I don't get why Yee was showing as the winner but then Crowley is now shown as having won, other than a few additional ballots were counted? But regardless - I'm much happier with FX Crowley in that seat than Norman Yee.

Posted by Troll II on Nov. 07, 2012 @ 12:00 am

From the DOE website on D7:

"Due to a formatting error, the html RCV report released at 10:30pm displayed incorrect numbers which affected the listing of the candidates in the last round. Below is the correctly formatted report."

It makes sense that when Garcia was eliminated that most of his votes went to Crowley, which is what did happen apparently.

We could have had a 1-1 runoff contest with Yee articulating more of a Proressive vision in D7 against Crowley. Which is what he did, successfully. Winning the most round 1 votes.

But thanks to RCV it didn't matter. I'm so glad that Progressives love this nonsensical RCV. Since 80% of the city is non-Progressive RCV makes sure that they lose all the close ones.

Posted by Troll on Nov. 07, 2012 @ 12:09 am

Crowley is an old-line, Irish-Catholic union boss - not a progressive. Tim deeply misunderstands the difference between that part of old San Francisco and modern SF progressives when he lumps Yee and Crowley together. Crowley will not "swing" on much important to Tim and the radicals at the Guardian.

Posted by Troll II on Nov. 07, 2012 @ 12:18 am

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